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	<title>Tim Worstall &#187; Business</title>
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	<link>http://timworstall.com</link>
	<description>It is all obvious or trivial except...</description>
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		<title>No, no, they didn&#8217;t</title>
		<link>http://timworstall.com/2012/01/04/no-no-they-didnt/</link>
		<comments>http://timworstall.com/2012/01/04/no-no-they-didnt/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Jan 2012 11:09:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tim Worstall</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Business]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://timworstall.com/?p=29414</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Manufacturers ended 2011 with their worst quarter since Britain was in the grip of recession, although the pace of contraction slowed in December. The closely watched Markit Purchasing Managers Index survey, which asks manufacturers about their output and order books, showed a reading of 49.6 last month — an improvement on the 47.7 recorded in [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>Manufacturers ended 2011 with their worst quarter since Britain was in the grip of <a title="More from guardian.co.uk on Recession" href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/recession">recession</a>, although the pace of contraction slowed in December.</p>
<p>The closely watched Markit Purchasing Managers Index survey, which asks manufacturers about their output and order books, showed a reading of 49.6 last month — an improvement on the 47.7 recorded in November, but still below the 50 mark which signals expansion.</p></blockquote>
<p><a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/jan/03/uk-manufacturers-worst-quarter-2009-recession">The MPMI</a> explores the rate of change, not the absolute level.</p>
<p>&#8220;Worst&#8221; describes the absolute level not the rate of change.</p>
<p>Acceleration and deceleration are simply not the same thing as speed.</p>
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		<title>Wll there&#8217;s your problem then</title>
		<link>http://timworstall.com/2011/12/15/wll-theres-your-problem-then/</link>
		<comments>http://timworstall.com/2011/12/15/wll-theres-your-problem-then/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 15 Dec 2011 09:06:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tim Worstall</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Business]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://timworstall.com/?p=29010</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[So, CEO pay has rebounded after a year of decline followed by a year of stagnation. But with median increases in remuneration of the order of 35 to 40%, the real question is: were the increases justified by performance? In order to determine this – and take the long view – I looked at pay [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>So, CEO pay has rebounded after a year of decline followed by a year of stagnation. But with median increases in remuneration of the order of 35 to 40%, the real question is: were the increases justified by performance? In order to determine this – and take the long view – I looked at pay movements and stock price performance over the last three years.</p>
<p>The decline in the economy in 2008 and 2009 outstripped the decline in CEO pay, by considerable amounts. In 2008, for example, the Russell 3000 Index was down by 37.3%; total realized pay (this includes salary, bonus and realized equity pay such as stock option profits) for CEOs fell by 6.34%.</p>
<p>But in 2010, when stock prices had begun to recover, the increase in CEO pay has outstripped the rise in share values. The Russell 3000 was up by 16.93%, but CEO pay went up by 27.19%. This differential, which always seems in favor of CEO pay, should give shareholders – whose investments are not subject to the same economic cushion – pause for thought.</p></blockquote>
<p><a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2011/dec/14/ceo-pay-disproportionate-job-performance">OK</a>, so let&#8217;s think about it then.</p>
<blockquote><p>However, it is profits made on the exercise of stock options that continue to drive today&#8217;s largest pay packages and largest increases as grants made nine and 10 years ago (when options were much more popular) continue to mature. Eight of the top 10 highest paid CEOs made the list because of option profits.</p></blockquote>
<p>So there&#8217;s your problem then. You&#8217;re measuring executive compensation over a three year performance period at the same time as you say that the major determinant is share options over an 8-10 year performance period.</p>
<p>Now go away and do your research properly you ghastly little boy.</p>
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		<title>Bart Becht and the £92 million paycheque</title>
		<link>http://timworstall.com/2011/12/09/bart-becht-and-the-92-million-paycheque/</link>
		<comments>http://timworstall.com/2011/12/09/bart-becht-and-the-92-million-paycheque/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 09 Dec 2011 08:33:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tim Worstall</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Business]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://timworstall.com/?p=28888</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[What did he do to deserve all that money? Becht became chief executive as a result of 1999&#8242;s merger of Britain&#8217;s Reckitt &#38; Colman with Benckiser of the Netherlands. Since then, he turned a £3bn company into a £23.5bn juggernaut, helped by the £1.9bn acquisition of Boots&#8217;s over-the-counter medicines wing in 2006 and last year&#8217;s [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>What did he do to deserve all <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/profiles/8944561/Bart-Becht-the-man-who-cleaned-up-at-Reckitt-Benckiser.html">that money</a>?</p>
<blockquote><p>Becht became chief executive as a result of 1999&#8242;s merger of Britain&#8217;s Reckitt &amp; Colman with Benckiser of the Netherlands. Since then, he turned a £3bn company into a £23.5bn juggernaut, helped by the £1.9bn acquisition of Boots&#8217;s over-the-counter medicines wing in 2006 and last year&#8217;s £2.5bn purchase of Durex-owner SSL International. Such success turned his share options into his truly unmentionable pay.</p></blockquote>
<p>Oh, he increased capitalisation of the company by £20 billion.</p>
<p>So he cashed in share options (which is indeed where his mega wonga came from) of 0.45% of the increase in value that happened on his watch.</p>
<p>Up to you whether you think that&#8217;s excessive or not really.</p>
<p>But let&#8217;s run it this way. Bloke comes along and says, you know, I can manage that business of yours really well. I can increase the capital value. And you pay me 0.5% of any increase in value and you keep 99.5% of it.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s not obvious that this is a bad deal for you.</p>
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		<title>Nice idea: probably won&#8217;t work though</title>
		<link>http://timworstall.com/2011/11/28/nice-idea-probably-wont-work-though/</link>
		<comments>http://timworstall.com/2011/11/28/nice-idea-probably-wont-work-though/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 28 Nov 2011 09:42:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tim Worstall</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Business]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://timworstall.com/?p=28602</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[However, evidence suggests that family-owned companies run by sons or daughters on average under-perform their professionally managed peers. The Business Department is expected to encourage wider use of external expertise and non-executive directors on boards as part of a package of measures. All mid sized companies that recognise they have reached the limits of their [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>However, evidence suggests that family-owned companies run by sons or daughters on average under-perform their professionally managed peers.</p>
<p>The Business Department is expected to encourage wider use of external expertise and non-executive directors on boards as part of a package of measures.</p>
<p>All mid sized companies that recognise they have reached the limits of their own skills are set be helped to bring in outside expertise. The Institute of Directors is understood to be drawing up a database of experienced non-execs as a new resource. Business schools could also be asked to redesign their MBA programmes to accommodate the needs of family owned companies.</p></blockquote>
<p><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/yourbusiness/8917936/Britains-10000-mid-sized-businesses-to-be-professionalised.html">All very nice</a>: but a large part of what the management of large companies does is actually deleterious to the performance of the company. It&#8217;s only possible for them to do it because the margins and buffers of a large company can absorb the waste.</p>
<p>In medium sized companies salesmen go and sell. In large ones they have diversity meetings.</p>
<p>OK, that&#8217;s not quite true, but I can&#8217;t remember whether it&#8217;s Peters or Parkinson who points out that the best way to bankrupt a medium sized business is to bring in the ex-Chairman of a large one. What he&#8217;ll spend on redecorating the executive suite is what a medium sized business would spend on developing the next version of the product.</p>
<p>They&#8217;re just not the same worlds and the skills (hah!) aren&#8217;t transferable in quite the manner people seem to think.</p>
<p>And asw to small business: how many people in a large corporation have ever thought about cash flow? And how many (surviving) small businesses think about virtually nothing else?</p>
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		<title>Weekend reading</title>
		<link>http://timworstall.com/2011/11/11/weekend-reading/</link>
		<comments>http://timworstall.com/2011/11/11/weekend-reading/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 11 Nov 2011 15:24:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tim Worstall</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Business]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://timworstall.com/?p=28152</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[So, I&#8217;ve some reading to do this weekend. On forestry subsidies. Need some pointers to it all if anyone has any. I&#8217;ve got Chapter 9 of Galloway and the Borders, so I&#8217;ve got he effect on nature nailed down. Now it&#8217;s tax breaks etc that I&#8217;ve got to mug up on. Are there various audit [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>So, I&#8217;ve some reading to do this weekend. On forestry subsidies.</p>
<p>Need some pointers to it all if anyone has any. I&#8217;ve got Chapter 9 of Galloway and the Borders, so I&#8217;ve got he effect on nature nailed down.</p>
<p>Now it&#8217;s tax breaks etc that I&#8217;ve got to mug up on.</p>
<p>Are there various audit committee reports? brochures from forestry companies telling of the riches to be made? Timelines of tax breaks?</p>
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		<title>Pre-pack administrations</title>
		<link>http://timworstall.com/2011/10/02/pre-pack-administrations/</link>
		<comments>http://timworstall.com/2011/10/02/pre-pack-administrations/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 02 Oct 2011 08:24:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tim Worstall</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Business]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[European Union]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://timworstall.com/?p=27178</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Erm, no. Trust the EU to get the wrong end of the stick here: Brussels has declared it wants to encourage more &#8220;second chance&#8221; entrepreneurs like Mike Smith of engineer Derrick Services Ltd (DSL) to reverse the European trend of punishing honest business failures. It wants to echo the US approach of giving entrepreneurs credit [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Erm, no. Trust the EU to get the wrong end of the <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/yourbusiness/8801034/Failed-entrepreneur-held-up-as-example-for-Europe.html">stick here</a>:</p>
<div>
<blockquote><p>Brussels has declared it wants to encourage more &#8220;second chance&#8221; entrepreneurs like Mike Smith of engineer Derrick Services Ltd (DSL) to reverse the European trend of punishing honest business failures. It wants to echo the US approach of giving entrepreneurs credit for trying.</p></blockquote>
</div>
<blockquote>
<div>
<p>The Commission has profiled DSL and a dozen other small and medium-sized companies (SMEs) from across the continent to mark the launch tomorrow of European SME Week.</p>
</div>
</blockquote>
<div>
<blockquote><p>But some of DSL&#8217;s former suppliers in Norfolk are angry about the debts they incurred when the original business went bust. Going into a pre-pack administration temporarily saved 400 jobs at DSL but suppliers that could not absorb the debts had to lay off staff.</p></blockquote>
<p>The point of pre-packs, of simple bankruptcy procedures, is not to give entrepreneurs a second chance.</p>
<p>Far from it in fact.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s to give businesses a second chance. The distinction is an extremely important one.</p>
<p>So, we&#8217;ve a business, an organisation. It&#8217;s a strange mixture of all sorts of things. Some physical assets yes, bit of land, machinery. And lots and lots of very specialist knowledge. Who are the customers, the suppliers, what do they all want, how do we do this etc.</p>
<p>And business value is becoming, more and more, embedded in that nebulous shit than in the land and machinery. At the extreme, knowing the phone number of and being on good terms with, the major buyer in your sector can be worth more than an entire office block (no, really, over the years, it can be).</p>
<p>So, when it all fucks up, what do we want to do? Well, first, of course, we want to take all the money away from the entrepreneur who fucked up. Risk and reward sorta stuff. So, that&#8217;s the bankruptcy.</p>
<p>Second, we want to asset strip the fuck up. Move assets from their current low value use to a higher value use: create wealth. Sometimes such an asset strip will be about land: stick a supermarket, a small business incubator, where the no longer desired car factory was.</p>
<p>But increasingly it&#8217;ll be wanting to preserve that set of knowledge within the company as that is the most valuable thing around. So don&#8217;t break it up, treat it as the asset it is and whisk it away into a new legal structure.</p>
<p>Another way of putting this. Sometimes the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. The asset to be stripped is thus the whole. Other times the parts sum to more than the whole: strip them separately.</p>
<p>Pre-pack bankruptcies are a way to do the former.</p>
<p>Sod all to do with giving entrepreneurs a second chance.</p>
</div>
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		<title>Kodak: the end of a technology</title>
		<link>http://timworstall.com/2011/10/01/kodak-the-end-of-a-technology/</link>
		<comments>http://timworstall.com/2011/10/01/kodak-the-end-of-a-technology/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 01 Oct 2011 07:28:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tim Worstall</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Business]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://timworstall.com/?p=27162</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A little note to make the point: Earlier this week, Moody&#8217;s, the ratings agency, downgraded several Kodak debt securities, sending it further towards &#8220;junk&#8221; status. Fitch downgraded the company a day later. Its shares are at their lowest since June 1935. There&#8217;s no particular reason why a company should last forever: in the larger scheme [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A little note to make the <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/mediatechnologyandtelecoms/electronics/8800472/Kodak-denies-bankruptcy-plan-after-shares-plunge-70pc.html">point</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>Earlier this week, Moody&#8217;s, the ratings agency, downgraded several Kodak debt securities, sending it further towards &#8220;junk&#8221; status. Fitch downgraded the company a day later.</p>
<p>Its shares are at their lowest since June 1935.</p></blockquote>
<p>There&#8217;s no particular reason why a company should last forever: in the larger scheme of things it&#8217;s a method of exploiting a technology, a market position. If that technology becomes redundant, the market position disappears, there&#8217;s no real reason for the company to continue to exist.</p>
<p>Sure, maybe it should have diversified: but perhaps not. All the systems, all the assets, the knowledge, were there to handle photography. That doesn&#8217;t particularly translate into being good at digital cameras (entirely different technology cycles, a very different business to be in) let alone anything else.Being good at film is just great: but when no one wants film any more than the assets, the knowledge, they probably should be sold off, dispersed: asset stripped if you like. Moved to other higher valued uses, creating wealth in the process.</p>
<p>This seems obvious with Kodak: but the same is true of all companies in the end. There&#8217;s a good argument sometimes put forward that Microsoft should stop investing. The money all came from owning the desktop: that stage of computing isn&#8217;t over, by a long way, but there&#8217;s no particular advantage that the company has outside the desktop: ecept for pots and pots of money of course. So why not return that money to the shareholders. Regard that near mkonopoly of the desktop as a wasting asset to be sweated for maximum return rather than having the money pilfered for Zune and other such nonsenses.</p>
<p>Or BP, Shell: great oil companies but that&#8217;s the point, they&#8217;re in oil. Not energy, not electricity, not solar, windmills. That&#8217;s not their skill. When we no longer want oil they probably won&#8217;t exist: and we also probably shouldn&#8217;t be shouting at them to invest in those things like wind and solar that they don&#8217;t know much about.</p>
<p>(Yes, I do know that Shell is in wind and BP was in solar, but they&#8217;re not actually what each company is good at).</p>
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		<title>Betfair charges</title>
		<link>http://timworstall.com/2011/09/23/betfair-charges/</link>
		<comments>http://timworstall.com/2011/09/23/betfair-charges/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 23 Sep 2011 07:35:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tim Worstall</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Business]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://timworstall.com/?p=26949</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[What? Betfair initially deducted 20pc of gross profits from successful punters gambling in more than 250 betting markets. In July, such charges were raised to 40pc to 60pc for customers who have won more than £250,000. Mr Sayaniya alleges he has bet in less than 250 markets and made a £24,000 profit. However, he claims [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/8782921/Betfair-removed-52000-from-customers-account.html">What</a>?</p>
<div>
<blockquote><p>Betfair initially deducted 20pc of gross profits from successful punters gambling in more than 250 betting markets. In July, such charges were raised to 40pc to 60pc for customers who have won more than £250,000.</p></blockquote>
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<div>
<blockquote><p>Mr Sayaniya alleges he has bet in less than 250 markets and made a £24,000 profit. However, he claims that on September 5 his account was suspended &#8220;under investigation of Premium Charge avoidance&#8221;. On September 20 he received an email from Betfair&#8217;s &#8220;pricing team&#8221; stating his account shared a similar betting strategy with four others, all of which would be taken into consideration for the charges. Betfair deducted all £52,352.85 in his account.</p></blockquote>
<p>So if you happen to win then they charge you extra fees? Up to 60% of what you&#8217;ve won?</p>
<p>What?</p>
</div>
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		<title>Full Tilt</title>
		<link>http://timworstall.com/2011/09/21/full-tilt/</link>
		<comments>http://timworstall.com/2011/09/21/full-tilt/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Sep 2011 07:26:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tim Worstall</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Business]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://timworstall.com/?p=26900</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Does our Mr. Gillies know more about this? Full Tilt is alleged to have credited players&#8217; accounts with $390m (£248m) it did not have, according to a lawsuit filed in New York on Tuesday by the US government. Full Tilt&#8217;s founder, Raymond Bitar, and other board members are also accused of paying themselves $440m from [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>Does our Mr. Gillies know more <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/8777839/Full-Tilt-Poker-was-a-Ponzi-scheme-claims-US-government.html">about this</a>?</p>
<div>
<p>Full Tilt is alleged to have credited players&#8217; accounts with $390m (£248m) it did not have, according to a lawsuit filed in New York on Tuesday by the US government.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>Full Tilt&#8217;s founder, Raymond Bitar, and other board members are also accused of paying themselves $440m from funds belonging to players between 2007 and April 2011.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>&#8220;Full Tilt was not a legitimate poker company, but a global Ponzi scheme,&#8221; said US attorney Preet Bharara.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>Mr Bitar is already one of 11 defendants named in an April indictment by US authorities seeking $3bn in penalties and alleging crimes including illegal gambling, money laundering and bank fraud.</p>
</div>
</blockquote>
<div>
<blockquote><p>Absolute Poker and PokerStars, which is based in the Isle of Man, were also among the companies named in the April indictment.</p></blockquote>
<p>It seems a little confusing to say the least.</p>
<p>On the one side there&#8217;s been the long battle by the US authorities to close all of these companies down. So is this just anouther stage in that?</p>
<p>Or have they really been naughty boys and been playing silly buggers with client monies?</p>
</div>
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		<title>Bureaucrats are important insist bureaucrats</title>
		<link>http://timworstall.com/2011/09/01/bureaucrats-are-important-insist-bureaucrats/</link>
		<comments>http://timworstall.com/2011/09/01/bureaucrats-are-important-insist-bureaucrats/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Sep 2011 07:24:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tim Worstall</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Business]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://timworstall.com/?p=26595</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[SIR – As past presidents of the Royal Town Planning Institute, this is the first time in more than 50 years that so many of us have come together to sign a public letter. The current debate in the media about planning reform, with claim and counter claim, highlights the importance of planning for economic [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/letters/8733541/The-Governments-draft-planning-policy-sides-with-developers-against-all-other-interests.html">SIR </a>– As past presidents of the Royal Town Planning Institute, this is the first time in more than 50 years that so many of us have come together to sign a public letter. The current debate in the media about planning reform, with claim and counter claim, highlights the importance of planning for economic growth, building communities and the conservation of our cherished spaces and places.</p>
<p>However, this debate has now descended into open hostility on all sides, with each party interpreting the same policy in very different ways.</p>
<p>The government also wants to bring in a new system almost overnight, reflecting the urgency of delivering localism and stimulating both housing and economic growth.</p>
<p>While we recognise this urgency and support the government’s overall objectives, the unintended consequences of this haste are greater confusion, uncertainty for the development industry and anxiety for communities.</p>
<p>Good planning is also about the long, as well as the short term.</p>
<p>What we need is a reasoned debate and clear thinking on managing this major change.</p>
<p>As the voice of the professionals, in the public, private and voluntary sectors, who will be charged with making any new system work, the RTPI stands ready to bring the parties together to address the confusion and to resolve the conflict.</p>
<p><strong>Martin Willey</strong><br />
<strong>Janet O’Neill</strong><br />
<strong>Clive Harridge</strong><br />
<strong>Ron Tate</strong><br />
<strong>Professor Vincent Goodstadt</strong><br />
<strong>Mike Haslam</strong><br />
<strong>Nick Davies</strong><br />
<strong>Kevin Murray</strong><br />
<strong>Brian Raggett</strong><br />
<strong>Trevor Roberts</strong><br />
<strong>Tony Struthers</strong><br />
<strong>Jed Griffiths</strong><br />
<strong>Hazel McKay</strong><br />
<strong>Martin Bradshaw</strong><br />
<strong>Professor Peter Fidler</strong><br />
<strong>Robin Thompson</strong><br />
<strong>Chris Shepley</strong><br />
<strong>Stephen Byrne</strong><br />
<strong>John Anderson</strong><br />
<strong>Andrew Thorburn</strong><br />
<strong>John Collins</strong><br />
<strong>Ewart Parkinson</strong><br />
<strong>Professor Graham Ashworth</strong><br />
The Royal Town Planning Institute<br />
London EC3</p></blockquote>
<p>The thing is, y&#8217;see, that the aim of the changes to planning law is to get rid of you lot. Not only don&#8217;t we want you hosting a summit so that all sides can be heard, we don&#8217;t want you anywhere near the process at all. For it is exactly your sort of planning that has brought us to this pretty impasse.</p>
<p>We&#8217;d like to get you back in your box, back to where Jane Jacobs said you should be: you can do a bit of connecting up the sewers and running the &#8216;leccie lines after people have decided where they want to build. But we want you entirely out of the business of deciding what should be built where.</p>
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		<title>State owned banking</title>
		<link>http://timworstall.com/2011/08/28/state-owned-banking/</link>
		<comments>http://timworstall.com/2011/08/28/state-owned-banking/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 28 Aug 2011 06:52:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tim Worstall</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Business]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://timworstall.com/?p=26478</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Lots of people calling for state owned banks these days. Picking winners, directing industry: Nationalisation of coal, gas, electricity, steel and the railways by Labour heralded deeper political intervention. Harold Wilson went further after moving to Downing Street in 1964, talking ambitiously about a technological revolution and the creation of groups with a global reach [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Lots of people calling for state owned banks these days. Picking winners, <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/8727009/Manufacturing-week-How-we-got-here.html">directing industry</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>Nationalisation of coal, gas, electricity, steel and the railways by Labour heralded deeper political intervention. Harold Wilson went further after moving to Downing Street in 1964, talking ambitiously about a technological revolution and the creation of groups with a global reach to match the US giants.</p>
<p>He set up the Industrial Reorganisation Corporation (IRC), the equivalent of a state-owned merchant bank, to fulfill the &#8216;mission.’ The &#8216;Young Turks’ in the IRC presided over the biggest ever shake-up in manufacturing. The motor industry was restructured around Donald Stokes and British Leyland. Arnold Weinstock was given carte blanche to ride roughshod through the electrical engineering industry. The exercise was repeated in machine tools, aerospace, mechanical engineering and other sectors.</p>
<p>British Leyland started life with more than 40pc of the British car market but lurched from crisis to crisis before disappearing. Lord Weinstock kept GEC intact but disappointed the politicians by being too cautious with his considerable cash pile. The successor body, the National Enterprise Board, did little better in its efforts to pick winners and in between industry was suffocated by &#8216;Neddy’ – the National Economic Development Council and &#8216;Little Neddy’ offshoots.</p></blockquote>
<p>Which part of this is it that everyone wants to repeat?</p>
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		<title>Retail sales: I&#8217;m not convinced by these numbers</title>
		<link>http://timworstall.com/2011/08/26/retail-sales-im-not-convinced-by-these-numbers/</link>
		<comments>http://timworstall.com/2011/08/26/retail-sales-im-not-convinced-by-these-numbers/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 26 Aug 2011 07:04:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tim Worstall</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Business]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://timworstall.com/?p=26433</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We&#8217;ve got the CoOp telling us that even food sales are falling: Peter Marks said that for the first time people have been cutting food budgets &#8211; normally an area that is relied upon as &#8220;recession-proof&#8221;. &#8220;People are spending less on food – that&#8217;s a first,&#8221; said the Co-op&#8217;s chief executive. He added that he [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We&#8217;ve got the CoOp telling us that even food sales are <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/8723408/High-street-recession-worst-for-40-years-says-Co-Op-chief-Peter-Marks.html">falling</a>:</p>
<div>
<blockquote><p>Peter Marks said that for the first time people have been cutting food budgets &#8211; normally an area that is relied upon as &#8220;recession-proof&#8221;.</p></blockquote>
</div>
<blockquote>
<div>
<p>&#8220;People are spending less on food – that&#8217;s a first,&#8221; said the Co-op&#8217;s chief executive. He added that he and other retailers are having to cut prices radically to shift stock.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>While normally around a quarter of products are on promotion, approximately 40pc are discounted at the moment, Mr Marks said. He added: &#8220;We&#8217;re not into &#8216;buy one, get one free&#8217; – we&#8217;re into &#8216;buy one, get two free&#8217;.&#8221;</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>He added: &#8220;It has been a tough six months, the toughest I&#8217;ve ever experienced in my 40 years of retailing. I don&#8217;t think we have come out of recession since 2008… I&#8217;ve operated through several recessions – this is by far the longest.&#8221;</p>
</div>
</blockquote>
<div>
<blockquote><p>The Co-Op, which is Britain&#8217;s fifth biggest supermarket group, unveiled a fall in first-half pre-tax profits to £230.8m. Group sales fell from to 6.89bn in the six months to July, down from £6.95bn during the same period last year. Food sales were £3.7bn, 4.6pc lower than last year.</p></blockquote>
<p>OK: I&#8217;m not arguing with those figures. Rather with what interpretation you might put upon them. For it&#8217;s essential to distinguish between some possible cyclical reasons (ie, the economy&#8217;s in the toilet) and a structural reason&#8230;..and there could be any number of those. Perhaps there&#8217;s fewer people about, perhaps we&#8217;re all now on diets, maybe, well, think up your own unlikely cause.</p>
<p>My likely cause is that, at least in part, we&#8217;re seeing a structural change in the way that people buy things. Yes, even food. <a href="http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/rs0811.pdf">For</a>:</p>
</div>
<blockquote><p>Internet sales<br />
Based on ONS experimental Internet sales series, the non-seasonally adjusted average weekly<br />
value of Internet retail sales in July 2011 was £523.4 million which was approximately 9.1 per<br />
cent of total retail sales (excluding automotive fuel), compared with July 2010 which was £395.8<br />
million which was approximately 7.1 per cent of total retail sales (excluding automotive fuel).</p></blockquote>
<p>We really do have a structural change going on. And yes, that structural change is affecting even food sales. From box deliveries of organics through Ocado to Amazon now offering groceries.</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t say that internet sales are the full and only cause of retail problems: yes, I&#8217;m sure that recession and general pennilessness have an effect. But I do think that this structural change (look, nearly 10% of retail sales are over the net now, up from nothing a decade ago and they&#8217;ve expanded by 2% of total retail sales in just the last twelvemonth) is the cause of at least part of it.</p>
<p>Does this matter though? In some cases no: if you&#8217;re an investor in retail stocks then why doesn&#8217;t matter. Falling sales are bad, M&#8217;Kay? But in two other senses yes. The first is just the general accumulation of woe and gloom about the economy. Lower storefront sales aren&#8217;t solely to do with woe and gloom in the economy therefore they shouldn&#8217;t be taken as signs of woe and gloom in the economy. Solely.</p>
<p>The second is whatever might be a policy response to events. It the change is a structural one then things like lower interest rates, QE III, fiscal expansion, these aren&#8217;t going to make a difference to that part of it which is structural.</p>
<p>Or, in short, as I&#8217;ve said a number of times recently, if 10% of retail sales are now over the internet who is surprised that 10% of shops are empty?</p>
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		<title>The value of the WWF</title>
		<link>http://timworstall.com/2011/07/25/the-value-of-the-wwf/</link>
		<comments>http://timworstall.com/2011/07/25/the-value-of-the-wwf/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 25 Jul 2011 06:58:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tim Worstall</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Business]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://timworstall.com/?p=25733</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Thought this was interesting: WWF, which is celebrating its 50th anniversary this year, makes about $500m a year from donations and corporate endorsements So the World Wildlife Fund gets $500 million a year in income. Difficult to really place an &#8220;enterprise value&#8221; on something which doesn&#8217;t avowedly make profits but that sort of turnover would [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thought this was<a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jul/25/wwf-accused-sustainable-timber-scheme"> interesting</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>WWF, which is celebrating its 50th anniversary this year, makes about  $500m a year from donations and corporate endorsements</p></blockquote>
<p>So the World Wildlife Fund gets $500 million a year in income.</p>
<p>Difficult to really place an &#8220;enterprise value&#8221; on something which doesn&#8217;t avowedly make profits but that sort of turnover would certainly put it in the FTSE 250, maybe even at the lower end of the FTSE 100.</p>
<p>No, no major point to make, it&#8217;s just not a small organisation: it&#8217;s big business.</p>
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		<title>Why do we let the BBC dominate broadcasting in the UK?</title>
		<link>http://timworstall.com/2011/07/19/why-do-we-let-the-bbc-dominate-broadcasting-in-the-uk/</link>
		<comments>http://timworstall.com/2011/07/19/why-do-we-let-the-bbc-dominate-broadcasting-in-the-uk/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 19 Jul 2011 09:44:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tim Worstall</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Business]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://timworstall.com/?p=25622</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Snigger.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://cityunslicker.blogspot.com/2011/07/voice-of-people.html?utm_source=feedburner&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CapitalistsWork+%28Capitalists+%40+Work%29">Snigger</a>.</p>
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		<title>Not sure about this</title>
		<link>http://timworstall.com/2011/07/13/not-sure-about-this-4/</link>
		<comments>http://timworstall.com/2011/07/13/not-sure-about-this-4/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 13 Jul 2011 07:00:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tim Worstall</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Business]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://timworstall.com/?p=25448</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Rupert Murdoch desperately battled to prop up the tumbling value of News Corporation on Tuesday, announcing plans for a $5bn (£3bn) share buyback. Maybe he just thinks the shares are cheap? And I would assume that none of the family&#8217;s shares would be tendered, so it would increase the family control as well, no?]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>Rupert Murdoch desperately battled to prop up the tumbling value of News Corporation on Tuesday, announcing plans for a $5bn (£3bn) share buyback.</p></blockquote>
<p><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/phone-hacking/8633450/Phone-Hacking-Rupert-Murdochs-5bn-battle-to-prop-up-News-Corp-shares.html">Maybe he</a> just thinks the shares are cheap?</p>
<p>And I would assume that none of the family&#8217;s shares would be tendered, so it would increase the family control as well, no?</p>
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		<title>Explaining Bombardier&#8217;s loss of the train contract</title>
		<link>http://timworstall.com/2011/07/12/explaining-bombardiers-loss-of-the-train-contract/</link>
		<comments>http://timworstall.com/2011/07/12/explaining-bombardiers-loss-of-the-train-contract/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Jul 2011 08:29:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tim Worstall</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Business]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://timworstall.com/?p=25427</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Mr. Chakrabortty doesn&#8217;t manage it. To him it&#8217;s all about the way in which the Derby train works are just a subsidiary of some Johnny Foreigner company. Toss. The contract was for a build and lease set of trains. Siemens has a higher credit rating than Bombardier. Thus the lease part of the contract is [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Mr. Chakrabortty doesn&#8217;t <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/jul/11/decline-britains-train-manufacturing-industry">manage it</a>.</p>
<p>To him it&#8217;s all about the way in which the Derby train works are just a subsidiary of some Johnny Foreigner company.</p>
<p>Toss.</p>
<p>The contract was for a build and lease set of trains.</p>
<p>Siemens has a higher credit rating than Bombardier. Thus the lease part of the contract is cheaper for Siemens than it is for Bombardier.</p>
<p>One figure I&#8217;ve seen is £750 million cheaper over the lifetime of the contract.</p>
<p>If the contract had been written (under Labour, please note) as a build, deliver and get paid one then the prices would have been much closer.</p>
<p>So, it&#8217;s all a result of G. Brown liking to buy things on the never never.</p>
<p>Place the blame where it belongs, if you wouldn&#8217;t mind.</p>
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		<title>Poor show by the bookie</title>
		<link>http://timworstall.com/2011/07/04/poor-show-by-the-bookie/</link>
		<comments>http://timworstall.com/2011/07/04/poor-show-by-the-bookie/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 04 Jul 2011 06:55:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tim Worstall</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Business]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://timworstall.com/?p=25201</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Fred Done, whose Betfred bookie won the race for the Tote with a £265m bid, is continuing to resist paying five punters who placed bets showing profits of £823,000 with its Gibraltar-based online wing, Betfred.com. It has declared the bets void – even though it has paid out on wagers placed by UK punters in [...]]]></description>
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<blockquote><p>Fred Done, whose Betfred bookie won the race for the Tote with a £265m  bid, is    continuing to resist paying five punters who placed bets showing  profits of    £823,000 with its Gibraltar-based online wing, Betfred.com.</p></blockquote>
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<p>It has declared the bets void – even though it has paid out on wagers  placed    by UK punters in its 840 betting shops.</p>
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<blockquote><p>Four of the five individuals are related to Mr Curley, 70, who has a  long    track record in stinging the bookies with gambles on horses trained at  his    small Newmarket yard.</p></blockquote>
<p><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/leisure/8614507/Tote-owner-Betfred-in-row-over-unpaid-bets.html">Although</a> it has to be said, not as bad as one bookmaker past.</p>
<p>Or at least so it is rumoured, when a punter won big back in the 60s the shop which contained the betting slip burned down overnight, before he could get there to claim his winnings.</p>
<p>A quite remarkable coincidence that.</p>
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		<title>The Bribery Act</title>
		<link>http://timworstall.com/2011/07/01/the-bribery-act-2/</link>
		<comments>http://timworstall.com/2011/07/01/the-bribery-act-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 01 Jul 2011 07:49:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tim Worstall</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Business]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://timworstall.com/?p=25132</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Asked whether all companies listed in the UK potentially fall under the remit of the Bribery Act, he said: &#8220;Exactly. You bet we will go after foreign companies. This has been misunderstood. If there is an economic engagement with the UK then in my view they are carrying on business in the UK.&#8221; The Bribery [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>Asked whether all companies listed in the UK potentially fall under the  remit    of the Bribery Act, he said: &#8220;Exactly. You bet we will go after  foreign    companies. This has been misunderstood. If there is an economic  engagement    with the UK then in my view they are carrying on business in the UK.&#8221;</p>
<p>The Bribery Act will allow the SFO to prosecute UK and foreign companies  for    acts of bribery committed anywhere in the world provided they have  some    business presence in the UK.</p></blockquote>
<p><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/yourbusiness/bribery-act/8609486/Serious-Fraud-Office-risks-clash-with-Ministry-of-Justice-over-Bribery-Act.html">I can think</a> of at least one FTSE company that would be entirely screwed by this interpretation. Given that they operate in a part of the world where business without bribery simply is not possible.</p>
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<blockquote><p>The hard line on foreign companies comes on the day the new Act comes  into    force (Friday). In an exclusive interview with <em>The Telegraph</em>,  SFO    director Richard Alderman also promised to take a tough line on larger     companies, but said he would not pursue small and medium-sized firms    suspected of committing bribes.</p></blockquote>
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<p>He said: &#8220;Some people have speculated that we will be going for    low-hanging fruit, that we will be going for smaller companies, to  which my    reply is &#8216;rubbish&#8217;. That is not our approach.</p>
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<blockquote><p>&#8220;We are going to go for the difficult cases. If the only cases that come     through our door involve smaller companies we will work through  education    rather than prosecution.&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<p>Which drives a coach and horses through the law in itself.</p>
<p>Time, perhaps, to get a little company somewhere and offer to at as an &#8220;intermediary&#8221; for a fee? After all, that&#8217;s what people have been doing for American companies for decades.</p>
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		<title>On that decline in British manufacturing</title>
		<link>http://timworstall.com/2011/06/22/on-that-decline-in-british-manufacturing/</link>
		<comments>http://timworstall.com/2011/06/22/on-that-decline-in-british-manufacturing/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 22 Jun 2011 07:39:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tim Worstall</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Business]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://timworstall.com/?p=24935</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[What decline? The bestselling shop-bought pizza in Italy, and indeed in 33 other countries around the world including Britain, is made by a German-owned food company on an industrial estate just off the M6 in Leyland, Lancashire. Sure, it&#8217;s not a Morris Minor we&#8217;re manufacturing, but manufacturing it is.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/lifeandstyle/2011/jun/21/how-good-dr-oetkers-pizza">What decline</a>?</p>
<blockquote><p>The bestselling shop-bought pizza in Italy, and indeed in 33 other  countries around the world including Britain, is made by a German-owned  food company on an industrial estate just off the M6 in Leyland,  Lancashire.</p></blockquote>
<p>Sure, it&#8217;s not a Morris Minor we&#8217;re manufacturing, but manufacturing it is.</p>
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		<title>Why, yes, regulations do strangle businesses, why do you ask?</title>
		<link>http://timworstall.com/2011/06/14/why-yes-regulations-do-strangle-businesses-why-do-you-ask/</link>
		<comments>http://timworstall.com/2011/06/14/why-yes-regulations-do-strangle-businesses-why-do-you-ask/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Jun 2011 10:37:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tim Worstall</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Business]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://timworstall.com/?p=24804</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A highlight: she’d have to install a pasteurizer even though she made her yogurt from milk that was already pasteurized. What’s more, California law makes it illegal to pasteurize milk twice, Hang them, hang them all.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p><a href="http://overlawyered.com/2011/06/california-closes-a-yogurt-business/">A highlight:</a> she’d have to install a pasteurizer even though she made  her yogurt from milk that was already pasteurized. What’s more,  California law makes it illegal to pasteurize milk twice,</p></blockquote>
<p>Hang them, hang them all.</p>
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