The problem with being an autodidact (posh word for untaught) in a subject is that you’ve no idea at all whether some idea that pops up is original or not. Simply not enough information about what others have been doing.
So, I hope like hell that someone has already thought about this and possibly even given us a measure of how important it is. It’s obviously true: but it might also be trivial. And if it isn’t then as I say, I do hope that someone has measureed this and thus I can be told how important it is.
OK, put together a few simple things.
1) Per capita GDP growth pretty much comes from productivity growth.
2) We know from Baumol that increasing prductivity in services is much more difficult than in manufacturing (or agriculture).
3) Services have been growing as a portion of the economy, manufacturing falling.
4) Trend growth rates are now lower than they were 30-50 years ago.
It seems pretty obvious to me that 4) is in part caused by 1-3.
So, has anyone actually tried to measure this? Luis? Chris?