Tim Worstall

10 responses so far ↓

• 1 Kay Tie // Apr 27, 2010 at 10:01 pm

  Oh dear.

  Bets already paying off on Greece. Place your bets on Portugal.

• 2 Breaker // Apr 27, 2010 at 11:51 pm

  Bbg has it at just over 13% on the 2 year.

  Ouch.

• 3 Joe Litobarski // Apr 28, 2010 at 12:07 am

  There’s no chance of Greece defaulting until May 19th (which is when the next payment is due). Why would it default before then?

  The elections in North Rhine/Westphalia in Germany are on May 9th, and Merkel will try not to commit anything before then because she’s worried about the results. Then you’ll probably see a rescue package pushed through very, very quickly.

  I’m willing to go on record and bet you that Greece won’t default.

• 4 Joe Litobarski // Apr 28, 2010 at 12:10 am

  Let me qualify that a bit – Greece won’t default this year.

  Next year or at some point in the next few years? Much more likely.

• 5 dearieme // Apr 28, 2010 at 12:25 am

  Should it default inside or outside EMU?

• 6 Joe Litobarski // Apr 28, 2010 at 10:08 am

  Dearieme – if you mean should it be ejected or leave the eurozone, I’ll make another bet. Greece will not leave the euro.

  First – because it’s impossible to force it out (the treaties don’t allow it). Second, because if Greece leaves the Eurozone voluntarily it also has to leave the EU. Nobody mentions this – but Greece leaving the Eurozone is not an option.

• 7 If Portugal Holds, Greece Will Too // Apr 28, 2010 at 10:43 am

  [...] going to go out on a limb here and make several predictions. First of all, some people are wondering if a Greek default might be imminent (as in next couple of days imminent). No, that’s not [...]

• 8 gene berman // Apr 28, 2010 at 11:53 am

  dearieme:

  What’s that ostrich-like bird (EMU) got to do with it?

• 9 diogenes // Apr 29, 2010 at 12:22 pm

  http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2010/03/05/lets-ignore-the-nonsense-the-reality-is-there-is-no-debt-crisis-even-in-greece/

• 10 blue monkey // May 10, 2010 at 11:41 pm

  Greece and Spain won’t pay back. This was a calculated Risk, and a Lesson for the Banking System. The only thing Germans can do is:
  REPOSSESS 170 Leopard 2AEX Battle Tanks from Greece, and 190 Leopard 2A6E Battle Tanks from Spain.
  U.S.A must REPOSSESS 170 F-16 Jet Fighters from Greece, … the rest is gone with the wind …forever …
  Greece must stop paying lucrative pensions with borrowed money, reform the free health care system, and cut down, 4 times the military budged.
  Greece’s problem is too much debt. Greece has a budget deficit of 12.7% of GDP – meaning that the country is spending 12.7% more than the value of one year’s economic output.
  Greece is no different to a serial credit card borrower who can’t pay back his loans. But just like a serial credit card borrower, as long as Greece keeps relying on borrowed money to fund itself, the problem won’t go away. It will just get worse.
  http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/Greece-in-Default-on-U-214-Submarine-Order-05801/
  Don’t worry; the ECB, the Fed or both will print the money.
  And all of us will share the pain, with our hard-earned money.
  Bad is never good until worse happens.

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