I’ve seen 18% mentioned as well.
Fork time. Default.
// Apr 27, 2010 at 10:01 pm
Bets already paying off on Greece. Place your bets on Portugal.
// Apr 27, 2010 at 11:51 pm
Bbg has it at just over 13% on the 2 year.
// Apr 28, 2010 at 12:07 am
There’s no chance of Greece defaulting until May 19th (which is when the next payment is due). Why would it default before then?
The elections in North Rhine/Westphalia in Germany are on May 9th, and Merkel will try not to commit anything before then because she’s worried about the results. Then you’ll probably see a rescue package pushed through very, very quickly.
I’m willing to go on record and bet you that Greece won’t default.
// Apr 28, 2010 at 12:10 am
Let me qualify that a bit – Greece won’t default this year.
Next year or at some point in the next few years? Much more likely.
// Apr 28, 2010 at 12:25 am
Should it default inside or outside EMU?
// Apr 28, 2010 at 10:08 am
Dearieme – if you mean should it be ejected or leave the eurozone, I’ll make another bet. Greece will not leave the euro.
First – because it’s impossible to force it out (the treaties don’t allow it). Second, because if Greece leaves the Eurozone voluntarily it also has to leave the EU. Nobody mentions this – but Greece leaving the Eurozone is not an option.
If Portugal Holds, Greece Will Too
// Apr 28, 2010 at 10:43 am
[...] going to go out on a limb here and make several predictions. First of all, some people are wondering if a Greek default might be imminent (as in next couple of days imminent). No, that’s not [...]
// Apr 28, 2010 at 11:53 am
What’s that ostrich-like bird (EMU) got to do with it?
// Apr 29, 2010 at 12:22 pm
// May 10, 2010 at 11:41 pm
Greece and Spain won’t pay back. This was a calculated Risk, and a Lesson for the Banking System. The only thing Germans can do is:
REPOSSESS 170 Leopard 2AEX Battle Tanks from Greece, and 190 Leopard 2A6E Battle Tanks from Spain.
U.S.A must REPOSSESS 170 F-16 Jet Fighters from Greece, … the rest is gone with the wind …forever …
Greece must stop paying lucrative pensions with borrowed money, reform the free health care system, and cut down, 4 times the military budged.
Greece’s problem is too much debt. Greece has a budget deficit of 12.7% of GDP – meaning that the country is spending 12.7% more than the value of one year’s economic output.
Greece is no different to a serial credit card borrower who can’t pay back his loans. But just like a serial credit card borrower, as long as Greece keeps relying on borrowed money to fund itself, the problem won’t go away. It will just get worse.
Don’t worry; the ECB, the Fed or both will print the money.
And all of us will share the pain, with our hard-earned money.
Bad is never good until worse happens.
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