Comments on: Subsea permafrost, methane and we’re all gonna die!

By: Frank O'Dwyer

Frank O'Dwyer — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 12:05:31 +0000

"For, you see, no one is saying that the Arctic Oceans, at 50 metres down, have been getting warmer. Certainly not getting warmer as a result of anything that we’re doing with fossil fuels or cow burps." Yes they are

By: Yes Tim, they are saying exactly that « Rearranging the Deckchairs

Yes Tim, they are saying exactly that « Rearranging the Deckchairs — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 12:03:53 +0000

[...] Worstall writes: For, you see, no one is saying that the Arctic Oceans, at 50 metres down, have been getting [...]

By: Matt Ridley

Matt Ridley — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 09:45:51 +0000

sorry gave a wrong link for the holocene methane record: this is the right one –
http://www.sscnet.ucla.edu/geog/downloads/634/296.pdf
and by `today’ i meant pre-industrial levels.

By: Alex

Alex — Sat, 06 Mar 2010 20:21:58 +0000

Obviously methane can vary, and not NECESSARILY in sync with global temperature (which during the holocene seems to have been relatively stable). But there is this from one of the articles:

“Shakhova notes that the Earth’s geological record indicates that atmospheric methane concentrations have varied between about .3 to .4 parts per million during cold periods to .6 to .7 parts per million during warm periods. Current average methane concentrations in the Arctic average about 1.85 parts per million, the highest in 400,000 years…”

And a lot of the extra energy from the amplified greenhouse effect seems to have gone into the oceans, including in the arctic (despite some sea ice fluctuation related to winds and moisture influx).

That said, the new study doesn’t seem to establish how much of the Siberian subsea out-gassing is a feedback, and what it’s future potential is. The NSF article on it just suggests that the release of a fraction of the estimated quantity could accelerate the warming process. More study is needed in this area, as clarified here:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/03/arctic-methane-on-the-move/

By: MikeinAppalachia

MikeinAppalachia — Sat, 06 Mar 2010 18:07:51 +0000

http://motls.blogspot.com/2010/03/methane-and-warming.html

By: Matt Ridley

Matt Ridley — Sat, 06 Mar 2010 12:44:02 +0000

Remember methane level increases are not accelerating rapidly; if anything they rose much more slowly in the 2000s than they did in the 1980s; and they are only now reaching levels they were at eleven thousand years ago. According to two ice cores, methane concentrations were higher than today at 11,000 BP, then declined for six thousand years then started rising again four thousand years ago as the climate cooled (not warmed): see graph in this paper: http://www.poyi.org/67/32/index.php.