Comments on: Investing with Timmy

By: matthew

matthew — Sat, 03 Jan 2009 10:09:04 +0000

well for what its worth i did buy the uk short oil etf at about 130 a barrel, panicked a bit at 147, then was mightily pleased when it fell towards 90. Until trading was suspended as aig, the counterparty, almost collapsed. The us government rescued us and i sold out at 50 so a return of about 2.5 times. Theres a lot of useful investment experience there. Btw its now fully collateralized so at least that cant happen again.

By: Kay Tie

Kay Tie — Fri, 02 Jan 2009 21:45:17 +0000

“there’s an ETF specifically set up to track oil prices (USO is the ticker)”

There’s quite a few, actually. USO is a US-listed ETF and my broker doesn’t even list it, let alone trade it. The OILW and OILB are the UK-listed ETFs tracking oil.

But these are based on rolling options contracts, and tend to underperform. A better track to oil prices is to invest in an oil services companies tracker (ticker IEZ). There’s a good article on this topic here:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8024.html

By: Colin Suttie

Colin Suttie — Fri, 02 Jan 2009 18:07:18 +0000

You most certainly could have done such a transaction – there’s an ETF specifically set up to track oil prices (USO is the ticker), and there are options on the ETF. I was thinking along similar lines around the same time, and only wish I’d had the courage of my convictions at the time.

By: Kay Tie

Kay Tie — Fri, 02 Jan 2009 17:05:05 +0000

“I think it’s gonna be at about $55-$60 per barrel at the end of 2009.”

Since Brent oil just jumped by 20% today, I think you might be right.

By: Kay Tie

Kay Tie — Fri, 02 Jan 2009 16:52:55 +0000

“margin calls makes it more like futures than options. I wanted to have a loss limitation.”

You can use guaranteed stop losses.

http://www.igindex.com.au/spread-betting/as_risk_management.html

Disclaimer: I don’t do spread-betting. I looked into it as a cheap way of doing currency hedging (which it is) but my need to do the hedging went away.

By: ZT

ZT — Fri, 02 Jan 2009 15:55:26 +0000

I wish I’d sold Lehman short. I wish I’d bet all my money on Obama winning. I wish I had a time machine, so I could place all these winning bets with no risk.

By: Tim Newman

Tim Newman — Fri, 02 Jan 2009 13:17:00 +0000

I think it’s gonna be at about $55-$60 per barrel at the end of 2009.

By: Kay Tie

Kay Tie — Fri, 02 Jan 2009 12:51:59 +0000

Why couldn’t you have done the transaction? IG Index et al offer low cost spread-betting, which amounts to the same thing.

Tijm adds: I don’t like spread betting….margin calls makes it more like futures than options. I wanted to have a loss limitation.

By: Dr Nick Ashley

Dr Nick Ashley — Fri, 02 Jan 2009 12:04:29 +0000

I wonder what those Somali prates are thinking re ‘their’ oil tanker and it’s soon to be worthless cargo?