A correspondent for this blog has been investigating the odds that Gordon Brown will fail to hold an election before June 2010.
That is, that he will suspend democracy.
The original thinking was that at 100 to one or something it would make an interesting little bet.
Paddy Power is offering 1:3.
Yes, yes, we know, betting odds are set not by the liklihood of something happening but by the weight of money being placed on something happening.
But it doesn\’t look good, does it?
If their odds are vaguely symmetrical, taking the other side would be an excellent bet. I suspect they aren’t, though (more an attempt to capitalise on paranoid loonies…).
He might not suspend democracy, just abolish it after the EU elections in 2009 and a move to the Euro, for what is left for the HoC to do now that Treasury, Defence, Energy, Law and Order, Agriculture etc. is decided in Brussels.
Remember, the HoC is due to shut for “refurbishment” next year…
Eek.
“Gordon Brown will fail to hold an election before June 2010”
Nothing of the sort. This is simply Paddy Power noting that the last legal date for the election is June 3rd 2010, and stating there is a reasonable chance of it happening then.
“Treasury, Defence, Energy, Law and Order, Agriculture”
Apart from Treasury (BoE functions would go to the ECB, but Treasury functions wouldn’t), Defence, Energy, and Law & Order, you’re absolutely spot-on.
@ Matt: interesting point. Also, Paddy Power don’t break down the odds beyond h1 09 / h2 09/ 2010. Is Tim’s correspondent being a little innovative with the truth, perhaps?
I guess he asked for a quote, but just misunderstood the dates.
JohnB,
What part of Treasury makes any real sense once we are in the Euro and our tax, welfare and pensions policy is being set by the EU?
It will just be admin.
But our tax and welfare policy wouldn’t be set by the EU under any current proposals. Not sure about pensions, but I’d be surprised.
“That is, that he will suspend democracy.”
Please explain this nonsense.